Saturday, August 23, 2008
|
Why aren't we more like China? |
President Obama is raising the question: why can't we just be more like the Peoples' Republic of China, after all?
A few pointers on this matter:
1. We have a different system of land ownership. Very different. (Google Hernando DeSoto -- the modern economic writer, not the conquistador -- for more theoretical material on this.)
2. We have an alternate legal structure defining an alternate spectrum of appropriation/production activities as well as an alternate and bigger social safety net. Put simply -- here it's easier to sue (for any number of reasons) if you don't want a new airport, oil refinery, or windmill farm near your back yard, and, as well, if you want unemployment insurance, health care assistance, and a pension, live here not there. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:50 PM |
Thursday, August 21, 2008
|
Great to live in modern times.... |
One nice thing about the modern internet is how easy it is to sell things. For example if I want to unload all my Valery Gergiev recordings on Amazon.com, I'll have the satisfaction of not owning politically repulsive recordings (some remarkably bad anyway) and, simultaneously, denying Mr. Gergiev the royalty he'd earn if a new recording of the same piece were sold.
UPDATE: I'm going to hold on to the complete Prokofiev symphonies, however, since it is appropriate to hear communist hack music conducted by a KGB hack conductor. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:22 PM |
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
|
Must mean his fans are really smart! |
| Don't you just love Thomas Friedman? Everybody -- absolutely everybody -- is dumber than a sack of bolts except him! |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 9:09 AM |
|
Flexibility, inflation, and profit levels... |
Buried in this NYT gloomy stagflation article are two points I planned to raise as a counter to the overall argument. Amazing when you find the evidence you need right in the article itself. It all depends on how you interpret what's being said:
We don't buy clothing anymore," Ms. White said. "We're now down to buying generic brands of food, and even that has risen in price."
What Ms. White is saying here is she's successfully maintaining her family's living standard through expenditure switching. How serious is not buying clothing anymore? Doesn't it depend on whether Ms. White -- like millions of others -- tended towards an increased wardrobe size when new, extremely inexpensive Chinese imports started appearing everywhere? And I'm sorry, but if she's "down" to buying generic foods, "and even that has risen in price", this only means she's feeding herself and her family at about the same level at a more-or-less constant cost by adjusting what she shops for.
The article goes on to recount the woes of business:
Businesses, already grappling with weak sales, have more recently struggled to manage their operations as costs have risen wildly..."It's come on in a rush, just in the last three months or so," said David Guernsey, president of an office supply distributor called Guernsey Office Products in Chantilly, Va. The price of paper clips alone has jumped by 40 percent, he said. "It's frightening. I have been in this business 37 years. Generally, when there was a downturn, prices have stabilized or dropped. This is the antithesis of that"...Mr. Guernsey has been passing on higher costs to his customers, raising his prices by about 10 percent. But he has been bearing increased fuel costs himself, diminishing his profits.
Good PR for a company that may well be enjoying higher profits thanks to the current round of inflation. Parse the paragraph as follows:
(1) The price of paper clips has jumped 40%. Has the price of everything jumped 40%? If so, why not say it? If not, the only reason to report the most dramatic (but, frankly, rather small) element in the current price/cost picture is
(2) to justify the business' notice of an across the board 10% increase in prices. That the businessman is "bearing increased fuel costs himself" means nothing -- it amounts to artificially breaking out one element of cost and claiming it alone is "borne" by the businessman. The real question is whether rising costs of fuel and all other purchases are greater than, less than, or equal to 10%.
And, indeed, the answer is in the article's first paragraph: "Prices for goods purchased by American businesses...have jumped by nearly 10 percent over the last year..." (emphasis added)
And there you have it. If your costs rise by nearly 10% and you raise your prices by exactly 10%, you've more than defended your profit margin. Ceteris paribus, your profits will increase.
And, since the key to rising employment is rising profit, the seeds of this recession's demise have been planted by the recession itself, end of story. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:27 AM |
Monday, August 18, 2008
|
Note: some oozes up naturally... |
| George Skelton of the LA Times falls prey to the fallacy of disproportionality (we use A% of x but we only produce B% of it so something is wrong), but over-all I agree strongly with everything else he says. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 9:04 AM |
Thursday, August 14, 2008
|
Property values go up, property values go down, the land stays there forever... |
So a Detroit house sells for $1. Don't let this get you upset. It has all happened before, and everything turned out more or less okay. Here's a recent video of Chicago's Garfield Park, where I grew up. Note all those empty lots, places that used to house many families. (Some of these empty lots date from 1975 onward.)
And why are there so many empty spaces? The answer is that property values plunged to nothing after riots in the late 1960s. Not until now is the area being rebuilt by -- you guessed it, new homeowners.
Don't get upset. It has all happened before, and it will happen again. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:55 AM |
|
Blood for oil... |
| Here's a clear-cut example, and the international outrage is...where? |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:45 AM |
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Monday, August 11, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
|
Just an idea... |
Opinions vary regarding what ended the 1990s "contagion" crisis that swept through Southeast Asia, Latin America, and even portions of the United States.
One day, somehow, everyone just "knew" it was indeed over.
Did something like this happen? |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 9:45 AM |
|
George Will comes out of the closet... |
| to reveal he's a Whig Historian! (You must read to the end to understand why he's whreally a Whig.) |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:16 AM |
Thursday, July 31, 2008
|
No recession predicted by the Yale Model |
Ray has finished the quarter's reestimation and run of Fairmodel. The forecast once again says there's no recession on the horizon. (Remember the model issued a similar prediction in April, when virtually nobody expected yesterday's impressive GDP growth number.)
Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for real GDP for the next four quarters are 2.8, 3.5, 3.2, and 3.2 percent, respectively. The respective unemployment rate values are 5.5, 5.4, 5.2, and 5.0 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.0, 2.2, 2.7, and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be large: 5.6, 5.3, 5.0, and 4.8 percent, respectively. These predicted values are clearly higher than most others are predicting. The model, however, has been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters, and so the current predictions should be interpreted with some caution. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem this year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.) |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:42 PM |
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
|
He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind... |
Nobody needs EconoPundit to link to something Glenn Reynolds has already noticed. However -- Glenn didn't quote this great comment from one of the post's more historically-literate readers:
"Gore reminds me increasingly of William Jennings Bryan" |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:02 AM |
Monday, July 28, 2008
|
Let them go, but slowly... |
William Poole:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not essential to the mortgage market; if they were put out of business in an orderly fashion over 5 to 10 years, the market would pick up the business they abandon. Fannie and Freddie exist to provide guarantees for mortgage-backed securities trading in the market. The business is simply insurance.
There are lots of insurance businesses around: property, auto, life and many others. These markets work fine without any government-sponsored enterprises. They are not highly concentrated into a small number of dominant players whose failure would threaten the entire economy; rather, lots of companies compete and spread the risk. Indeed, there are well-established firms in mortgage insurance, but their growth has been stunted by the special advantages Fannie and Freddie enjoy.
In fact, there has already been a test case for how the mortgage market would function without Fannie and Freddie. After an accounting scandal in 2005, regulators severely constrained their activities. The nation's total residential mortgage debt outstanding rose by $1.176 trillion in that year, even though Fannie's and Freddie's stakes rose by only $169 billion, just 14.4 percent of the total. In essence, the market barely noticed that the two agencies' private competitors were providing 85 percent of the increase in mortgage debt in 2005. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:10 AM |
Saturday, July 26, 2008
|
Can you say "SPR" in Mandarin? |
| Econbrowser examines the price of oil and where it "should" be. He hints at my paranoid fantasy: someone somewhere (China? Anyone hear China?) is stockpiling petroleum on a more-or-less secret basis. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:33 AM |
Monday, July 21, 2008
|
Old geezer strikes again... |
McCain's new ad blames Obama (not the Democrats in general?) for high gas prices. Okay, I can go with that. I'm for drill here drill now pay less.
But the ad features a gas pump nobody will recognize -- it dates from the early seventies, before the days of self-service credit-card-accepting automated pumps -- suggesting McCain hasn't himself been physically present at a gas station in thirty years.
Dumb.
UPDATE: Can't find a still graphic, so you'll have to go to the ad, run it, and see for yourself. The pump is non-digital, and its numerical readout goes no higher than $9.99. Nobody under the age of 45 will know what the heck it is. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 2:46 PM |
Sunday, July 20, 2008
|
100% Certainty? |
Latest analysis of the birth certificate.
UPDATE: Here's the original report. In my opinion it takes the question mark out of this post's headline:
During the course of my analysis several calls were made to various departments in the Hawaiian State Government in an attempt to better understand the process and procedures used to create, print, and distribute copies of the COLB form. While I was brushed off or hung up upon by almost all of the people I contacted I did manage to talk with a computer technician who was familiar with the computers and printers used by the Department of Health and the clerk's offices. He was unwilling to give any specific details but did provide enough information to work with. The COLB certificates are printed directly in the clerk's office at the time they are requested. The system uses a standard laser printer and the border is printed at the same time as the text and other images on top of preprinted security paper. He stated the border is a vector image and would appear crisp and defined. When asked if a COLB can be printed off center he said it was not possible and any misfeed would simply jam in the printer. When asked if he had seen the images on-line he replied that he had -- and that there is "no way" they had printed something that looked like that which further backed up my conclusions. Now let's start to put the pieces of the puzzle together. The KOS image security border pattern does not match any known specimen from any known year. It does not match the pre-2006 nor does it match the post-2006 certificate patterns. The placement of the text in all of the pre-2006 and post-2006 certificates are almost identical pixel location matches while the image's text placement does not match any known specimen from any known year. The shape and kerning of the fonts used in the 2006 through 2008 certificates are identical while the shape and kerning of the fonts used in the image does not match any known specimen. The KOS image shows clear signs of tampering such as the mismatch in RGB and error levels, visible indications of the previous location of the erased security border, easily detectable patterns of repeating flaws around the new security border, EXIF data that says the image was last saved with Photoshop CS3 for Macintosh, and finally a technician from Hawaii who confirms it just looks wrong.
There are two obvious scenarios used to create the image that can be ascertained from evidence. Either a real COLB was scanned into Photoshop and digitally edited or a real COLB was first scanned to obtain the graphic layout then blanked by soaking the document in solvent to remove the toner. After rescanning the blank page to a separate image the graphics from the previously obtained scan could then be easily applied to the blank scan after some editing and rebuilding. It would also explain why date stamp bleeds through the paper and the various bits of toner located around the image as well as the remnants of the previous location of a security border. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:18 PM |
Friday, July 18, 2008
Saturday, July 12, 2008
|
Heck. I could have used that $100,000. |
| More Illinois spending (under State Senator Barack Obama) for a program that went nowhere. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:53 AM |
Friday, July 11, 2008
|
Hey, whatever happened to...? |
| The "Arab Street"? Does anybody remember what I'm talking about? |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:47 AM |
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
|
The old fart says another dumb thing... |
McCain (the old guy) is so out of touch it makes you laugh. If he winds up winning the Democrats ought to disband and start fresh with a new name.
UPDATE: Okay, he may have meant this as some kind of profound denouncement of Social Security as Ponzi Scheme. But these things must be explained to voters. Elsewise, you wind up looking like a dumb old guy who doesn't know about everyday life in America. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:56 PM |
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
|
What a clever new idea for a headline! |
The story is titled "Energy bill out of gas." (I added the emphasis in case you missed this highly original bit of wordplay!)
Anyway, the situation is pathetic. No commentator seems to remember Clinton's veto of ANWR drilling. No commentator seems to remember the 2001 National Energy Policy proposal that had the nerve to suggest we start drilling for more oil in the United States. No commentator seems to know that oil exploration is already subject to "use it or lose it" provisions -- and that petroleum exploration typically goes forward when companies feel they'll make a profit, and doesn't when they don't.
Neither pundit nor politician knows anything about the oil business. We close with the article's last paragraph:
"Right now, our strategy on gas prices is 'Drive small cars and wait for the wind,'" said a Democratic aide.
How populist. How much empathy this reveals for the working poor. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:47 PM |
Monday, July 07, 2008
|
Rest in peace, Tom... |
Thomas Disch has died, and now we may never build pyramids in Minnesota nor dream enough those dreams our stuff is made of.
UPDATE: I suppose I should have known he had a blog, but I didn't. Here's a link. His last post bears a date two days prior to his death. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:47 AM |
Friday, July 04, 2008
|
|
 |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:41 AM |
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
|
One man's leading sector is another man's... |
Smearing the economy as usual, the NYT laments a "deepening cycle of job loss" supported by the following graphic:
This business of "leading sectors" can be a tricky one, so I went to FRED and got a graphic of what I'd consider the most basic leading sector of the moment, mining, minerals, energy, you know, all that stuff with currently rising prices because it's available in short supply relative to demand? And guess what? In this particular leading sector employment is booming:
Don't you think we'd see even more job expansion in this sector if we drilled now, drilled here, and (finally) paid less? (And heck, don't even ask me about job prospects if we signed on to nuclear as well!) |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:14 AM |
|
Being, myself, a reformed radical of the 1960s... |
I feel it is totally appropriate to post the following video:
Via Tigerhawk. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:10 AM |
|
I'm in the wrong business... |
Just in case you want to know, when computed very simply using annual compounding, the discounted present value of a $300 monthly saving on a 30 year loan is $51,798.66.
If this story is accurate, in other words, Northern Trust gave Senator Barack Obama a reduced interest rate saving his family a tad under $52,000 over the lifetime of the loan.
The house is described modestly as follows:
The couple wanted to step up from their $415,000 condo. They chose a house with six bedrooms, four fireplaces, a four-car garage and 5 1/2 baths, including a double steam shower and a marble powder room. It had a wine cellar, a music room, a library, a solarium, beveled glass doors and a granite-floored kitchen.
Like I say, I'm in the wrong business... |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 5:50 AM |
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
|
Yeah...full of awe...and artifice... |
Via AC:
Apocryphal rumor [says] when King James II...saw the restored St. Paul's cathedral, he described it [as] "awful [and] artificial"...Sir Christopher Wren, the architect of St. Paul's, did not take any offense; on the contrary, he was flattered by the king's remarks.
Somehow this old story came to mind when I read this new story. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 4:30 PM |
|
Just like Kennedy said... |
ABC News: "Obama Shifts on Welfare Reform":
By glossing over his early opposition to welfare reform, Obama is stepping closer to the political mainstream. But by undergoing this transformation only once it became politically convenient, Obama's critics will charge that he puts calculation ahead of conviction.
What's that old quote? Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan? |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 1:14 PM |
|
Der neue Exodus |
The incomparable Dasha reports the daily La Stampa as commenting with concern on the increasing number of well-educated Germans leaving home for better jobs abroad. Her translation:
"While everyone marvels at the old Continent's engine of change and its economic miracle, more and more Germans are quietly packing their bags and heading abroad. ... The creme de la creme are taking their degrees and their know-how to search elsewhere for new career opportunities, for instance in Switzerland, England or the US. ... In 2007 around 161,000 emigrated, an exodus the likes of which Germany has not witnessed since the 1950s. The country has lost its appeal for its elite. High taxes, low salaries and little chance of promotion are to blame. ... Ludwig Erhard's slogan 'prosperity for all' is losing substance. ... In a country that invests 700 billion annually in its social system, the rift between poor and rich has grown ever wider. ... Trade union guarantees are virtually non-existent nowadays. Insecurity is growing." (01/07/2008)
UPDATE: Paul H. -- loving husband to the incomparable Dasha -- sends this critical comment:
The Germans may move freely within the EU. But how do they enter the U.S. [--] with tourist visas? Last time I checked the HB visas (five year work permit) were extremely hard to get even with the sponsorship if big multinational corporations and the help from high powered emmigration lawyers. The question is, where can the discarded U.S. management and Wall-Street workers go? |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:15 AM |
|
Flyover Country, Circa 1925-39 |
Via Jonah Goldberg:
The Nation ran a famous series then called "These United States," in which smug emissaries from East Coast cities chronicled the "backward" attitudes of what today would be called fly-over country. One correspondent proclaimed that in "backwoods" New York (i.e. outside the Big Apple): "Resistance to change is their most sacred principle." If that was their attitude to New York, it shouldn't surprise that they felt even worse about the South. One author explained that Dixie needed nothing less than an invasion of liberal "missionaries" so that the "light of civilization" might finally be glimpsed down there. These authors simply assumed, writes intellectual historian Christopher Lasch, that " 'breaking with the past' was the precondition of cultural and political advance." Even today, writes Time's Joe Klein, "This is a chronic disease among Democrats, who tend to talk more about what's wrong with America than what's right."
You can even find all this as the subject of great (or maybe not-so-great) movies of the 1960s. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:59 AM |
Monday, June 30, 2008
|
The law of unintended consequences strikes again... |
| Plant trees to lower the world's carbon footprint. Then they burn down. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:02 PM |
|
Worldwide inflation and its informants... |
| In a world of global slowdown and rising prices, it makes sense to ask which countries' minimum wage is linked to inflation? This study provides some answers. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:24 AM |
|
"When everyone is someone, no one is anybody..." |
| This helps explain why we don't like spending new money on new schools here in Cook County Illinois. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:14 AM |
Saturday, June 28, 2008
|
Mean voter theorem revisited? |
| Finally a poll that distinguishes Keynesianism (government's self-awareness of fiscal/monetary implications) and redistributionism. As many have noted before, Keynesianism wins about as dramatically as redistributionism loses. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 4:11 PM |
Friday, June 27, 2008
|
Barak Obama: Socialist Slumlord? |
Grove Parc Plaza -- a possible testing ground for President Obama's future housing policies -- may argue strongly against this candidate's qualifications and judgment:
About 99 of the units are vacant, many rendered uninhabitable by unfixed problems, such as collapsed roofs and fire damage. Mice scamper through the halls. Battered mailboxes hang open. Sewage backs up into kitchen sinks. In 2006, federal inspectors graded the condition of the complex an 11 on a 100-point scale - a score so bad the buildings now face demolition.
Grove Parc has become a symbol for some in Chicago of the broader failures of giving public subsidies to private companies to build and manage affordable housing - an approach strongly backed by Obama as the best replacement for public housing...
The campaign did not respond to questions about whether Obama was aware of the problems with buildings in his district during his time as a state senator, nor did it comment on the roles played by people connected to the senator.
Among those tied to Obama politically, personally, or professionally are:
Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to Obama's presidential campaign and a member of his finance committee. Jarrett is the chief executive of Habitat Co., which managed Grove Parc Plaza from 2001 until this winter and co-managed an even larger subsidized complex in Chicago that was seized by the federal government in 2006, after city inspectors found widespread problems.
Allison Davis, a major fund-raiser for Obama's US Senate campaign and a former lead partner at Obama's former law firm. Davis, a developer, was involved in the creation of Grove Parc and has used government subsidies to rehabilitate more than 1,500 units in Chicago, including a North Side building cited by city inspectors last year after chronic plumbing failures resulted in raw sewage spilling into several apartments.
Antoin "Tony" Rezko, perhaps the most important fund-raiser for Obama's early political campaigns and a friend who helped the Obamas buy a home in 2005. Rezko's company used subsidies to rehabilitate more than 1,000 apartments, mostly in and around Obama's district, then refused to manage the units, leaving the buildings to decay to the point where many no longer were habitable.
Campaign finance records show that six prominent developers - including Jarrett, Davis, and Rezko - collectively contributed more than $175,000 to Obama's campaigns over the last decade and raised hundreds of thousands more from other donors. Rezko alone raised at least $200,000, by Obama's own accounting.
One of those contributors, Cecil Butler, controlled Lawndale Restoration, the largest subsidized complex in Chicago, which was seized by the government in 2006 after city inspectors found more than 1,800 code violations.
Butler and Davis did not respond to messages. Rezko is in prison; his lawyer did not respond to inquiries.
UPDATE: Via Kaus, more on Valerie Jarrett. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:44 AM |
|
Wackos strike again... |
Environmental regulation now places a two year moratorium on new energy development. Uh, solar new energy development, that is.
Seems to me I read something just yesterday that describes the problem:
Action entails risks and consequences. Mere thinking doesn't. In our litigious society, as soon as someone finally does something, someone else can become wealthy by finding some fault in it. Meanwhile a less fussy, more confident world abroad drills, and builds nuclear plants, refineries, dams and canals to feed and fuel millions who want what we take for granted.
I guess VDH can add "solar" to that list now. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:03 AM |
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
|
Advice... |
Rich Lowry thinks McCain should immediately bring in Bill Kristol as a senior advisor.
I couldn't agree more. He needs some senior person to sort out all the contradictory advice he's accepting uncritically. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:52 AM |
Sunday, June 22, 2008
|
Get ready for the Obama presidency... |
Some of this might help, some might hurt, some might change a few prices of this or that somewhere sometime, but mostly it shows Obama can find charismatic ways to get ahead of the "drill now drill here pay less" meme and totally outmaneuver John McCain -- you remember, that slow old geezer who can't raise arms above shoulders and doesn't understand economics?
UPDATE: All this critiquing of the "Enron loophole" might wind up backfiring if major Democratic supporters -- major union pension funds, for example -- are in fact taking advantage of regulations as they now stand. The very existence of union pension funds' "profiteering" through "oil speculation" could easily be exploited by an unprincipled charismatic Republican candidate. (McCain is of course a candidate -- but for better or worse he is neither unprincipled nor charismatic.)
UPDATE: Here, the ever-reliable Jerry Gordon points out the Enron loophole isn't the only loophole, and, yes, major union pension funds have participated heavily in the very speculation Democrats blame for the oil bubble. |
| Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:33 AM |
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