Lenders will find borrowers sooner or later...

Jeffrey A. Miron: ...a bailout transfers enormous wealth from taxpayers to those who knowingly engaged in risky subprime lending. Thus, the bailout encourages companies to take large, imprudent risks and count on getting bailed out by government. This "moral hazard" generates enormous distortions in an economy's allocation of its financial resources. Thoughtful advocates of the bailout might concede this perspective, but they argue that a bailout is necessary to prevent economic collapse. According to this view, lenders are not making loans, even for worthy projects, because they cannot get capital. This view has a grain of truth; if the bailout does not occur, more bankruptcies are possible and credit conditions may worsen for a time. Talk of Armageddon, however, is ridiculous scare-mongering. If financial institutions cannot make productive loans, a profit opportunity exists for someone else. This might not happen instantly, but it will happen. Further, the current credit freeze is likely due to Wall Street's hope of a bailout; bankers will not sell their lousy assets for 20 cents on the dollar if the government might pay 30, 50, or 80 cents. The costs of the bailout, moreover, are almost certainly being understated. The administration's claim is that many mortgage assets are merely illiquid, not truly worthless, implying taxpayers will recoup much of their $700 billion. If these assets are worth something, however, private parties should want to buy them, and they would do so if the owners would accept fair market value. Far more likely is that current owners have brushed under the rug how little their assets are worth. It seems to me there's an inherent contradiction in all this. Virtually every public figure who can find a TV camera is engaging in rent-seeking behavior, claiming this will all turn into a systemic crisis and catastrophic collapse unless the all-important public sector rescues the helpless private sector. But the public sector has lost its credibility. Each passing day with everyday economic life going forward more-or-less normally makes all public figures look like spoiled children behaving badly to grab grownups' attention.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:18 AM

What happened was this...

Best of the comments found beneath this from ABC: So let's see: - Pelosi brings the bill to a vote, yet no speaker does that unless they know they have the votes beforehand. - She has at least five different Democratic committee chairman vote no and at least 12 Democrats on Frank's committee vote no. - More than 90 Democrats in total vote no. ALL of them are in tight races or traditional Republican districts. - The bill fails, and when Republicans tried to ask for extended time to twist some arms the Democrats, INCLUDING BARNEY FRANK, screamed for "Regular Order", meaning no special cirumstances should be allowed. Pelosi agreed, closing the vote. Conclusion: Pelosi did not want the bill to pass. Why? A poor economy is good for Obama, that's why. Simultaneously she made Bush look like an even bigger fool (if that's possible) and blamed the poor economy on House Republicans. Pelosi is willing to send the country headlong into a depression as long as it makes Obama look good. Democrats, what has happened to the party of JFK?

Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:59 AM

Monday, September 29, 2008

A living nightmare...

Yes, a horribly bad dream come true -- and you can find most of my youth and middle age in the upper left hand corner of the diagram. UPDATE: More here. UPDATE II: And, for comic relief, here's the stopped clock that every six months or so is sort-of-right, uh, twice (or maybe only once?) a day. UPDATE III: Yes, I know, it's supposed to be first time as tragedy, second time as farce, but here you can consider UPDATE II the latter and this the former.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:05 AM

Friday, September 26, 2008

"Deal May Be Dead -- Democrats Blame McCain"

Of course the Democrats have majoriies in both houses so they can make happen any deal Bush won't veto (and who thinks he's going to veto anything)? Yeah, that bad McCain. He made us do it. UPDATE: Paul Krugman asks where are the "grownups"? Why wasn't the Paulson plan convincing? Why is McCain playing spoiler Earth to Paul, Earth to Paul, please come in: the Democrats are in the majority in both houses. They can pass whatever legislation they want. Hello?????

Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:16 AM

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Pigs are flying and...

on Fox News Dennis Kucinich is talking about the bailout and I agree with him.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 3:53 PM

Negative energy earmark...

Porkbuster altert! Porkbuster alert! Glenn Reynolds -- are you listening? Here's an inverse earmark being sneaked into the bailout package! Hello? Help? Anyone listening?????

Link posted by Steve Antler : 2:26 PM

Who is being saved? Where are they?

Paul Krugman says the bursting of the housing bubble has led to a surge in defaults and foreclosures. Google the term "surge in defaults and foreclosures," you'll get six pages of current news results, but when you google the same term for images: you get close-ups of concerned faces, empty homes with signs in front, folks lined up in front of banks, but not a single shot of a family with all their furniture sitting in front of a house they were thrown out of. In our day to day lives every one of us has once or twice seen this kind of unhappy circumstance, and in California the foreclosure rate is now supposedly up 300% and, we're told, thousands of families are being thrown out of their homes. So why can't I find even one news photo of a family and all their furniture sitting around in front of a foreclosed home? UPDATE: Send me a link to the photo I missed. I'm waiting. UPDATE II: And then again, we have stuff like this: "A foreclosure would be devastating," he says. "My wife and I would have to start from scratch."

Link posted by Steve Antler : 9:08 AM

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

What I think...

Okay here goes, this is my perfectly amateur opinion right now. The sky is not falling. Paulson knows this. He'd like lots of additional power and money (for himself and the administration) so that when business returns to more-or-less ususal he (and the administration) can take the credit (no pun intended). UPDATE: Let's paraphrase and put in really simple terms what we long ago learned from Irving Fisher: it is sometimes useful (and reasonably accurate) to imagine a "national balance sheet." Right now our national balance sheet shows we're insolvent. We might solve the problem overnight -- add substantially to the asset side of the balance sheet, in other words -- by credibly adopting an "all of the above" policy of insourcing all American energy production. Indeed, the process may have already begun. UPDATE II: Lending goes on (although all the graphs show flatness in the latest observations). UPDATE III: John "carpe diem" McCain makes his move and, perhaps, determines the outcome! Remember, even if the crisis heals itself, those who get in front of a flexible policy to address it get to take credit for the healing. As this is written Obama is speaking live on TV, so I can liveblog a response; Obama is now taking credit for suspending the campaign? I don't get it. He's now explaining a sort of confusing set of phone calls back and forth. Does he look presidential? I leave it to you to decide. Okay, he's now answering reporter's question saying the debate should proceed. McCain was more decisive "in his own mind" than, says Obama, he was on the telephone. Which side looks more decisive? I leave it to you to decide. A further thought -- Eisenhower (1952): "I shall go to Korea!" McCain (2008) -- "I shall go to Washington!" McCain's action seems like the sort of decisive moment -- "Mr. Speaker, I am paying for this microphone!" -- that changes everything. Now Obama is making his standard campaign speech. McCain has suspended his campaign owing to the national emergency. Who looks better? I leave it to you to decide. UPDATE IV: Just an idea, but if I'm right you heard it here first: won't the McCain camp now suggest the VP debate go forward Friday night? Sweet!

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:26 AM

Crime Unit steps in...

Barring some prime time urgent presidential address on national television, this now puts everything on hold. The nation awaits uncovery of bad guys and evil doings. It's a shame John Kenneth Galbraith is dead. He'd write about it with such witty irony. (Remember -- "In Goldman Sachs we Trust"? What a guy.) Of course you have to remember all this is mostly above the FBI's pay grade. Paulson and company have trouble explaining to Congress exactly what's going on -- how will those great folks at the FBI sort it out? Investigators say that despite calls from some quarters to prosecute wealthy bankers who helped fuel the mortgage bubble, it is unclear what crimes they will find at the root of the exotic financial vehicles that have sickened banks around the world. A more likely outcome of the probes will be hundreds more retail-level fraud cases of the type already being brought against brokers, real-estate agents, and buyers related to falsified mortgage applications. UPDATE: Wikipedia provides this useful graph: It is my understanding national mortgage foreclosures are now roughly twice their 1995-2005 trend value. Mortage fraud -- from a quick view of the graph -- seems to be maybe four to five times its trend value for the same period. On main street, exactly who is in trouble? UPDATE II: On basis of this post Glenn Reynolds asks why not solve the mortgage crisis by giving money to homeowners? I'll tell you why, Glenn. If the lenders were unable to sort out the crooks from the real home buyers, why do you think the federal government will do better? UPDATE III: A significant problem may be that folks' personal experience of the "crisis" is very class-stratified. Well-off people (like myself) tend to encounter the white-collar-crime evidence of the crisis -- the guy in the condo who borrowed a half million and declared bankruptcy, or the house next door that somehow generated a mortgage twice its value before the owner sold out and vanished. Our daily experience, in other words, makes this look like a problem only for extremely wealthy financial folks and small time crooks.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:09 AM

Monday, September 22, 2008

Out on a limb we go once again...

Without saying it, I think Bill Kristol has (in effect) predicted neither McCain nor Obama will support the administration's bailout plan. It's the prisoner's dilemma. If McCain comes out against, Obama's got to follow.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 1:27 PM

Sometimes less is more...

Newt says it for me: Implementation of the Paulson plan is going to be a mess. It is going to be a great opportunity for lobbyists and lawyers to make a lot of money. Who are the financial magicians Paulson is going to hire? Are they from Wall Street? If they're from Wall Street, aren't they the very people we are saving? And doesn't that mean that we're using the taxpayers' money to hire people to save their friends with even more taxpayer money? Won't this inevitably lead to crony capitalism? Who is going to do oversight? How much transparency is there going to be? We still haven't seen the report which led to bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is "secret"[?] Is our $700 billion going to be spent in "secret" too? In practical terms, will a bill be written in public so people can analyze it? Or will it be written in a closed room by the very people who have been collecting money from the institutions they are now going to use our money to bail out? UPDATE: So you say "but we have to do something." Okay. This is the something we have to do. UPDATE II: And for the tinhat bring-back-Glass-Steagall crowd, here's a primer on the subject. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong: (a) Wasn't much of Glass-Steagall aimed at creating smaller, more-local (and therefore less-powerful) financial institutions, closer to the communities they served (and therefore less politically challenging to Washington bureaucrats)? (b) Isn't the current crisis mostily attributable to the size (and transparency) not of institutions but of the financial instruments created by these institutions? Is it somehow true that only "large" institutions can create "large" instruments? As Meagan puts it: If Glass-Steagall's repeal had meaningfully contributed to this crisis, we should see the failures concentrated among megabanks where speculation put deposits at risk. Instead we see the exact opposite: the failures are among either commercial banks with no significant investment arm (Washington Mutual, Countrywide), or standalone investment banks. It is the diversified financial institutions that are riding to the rescue.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:12 AM

Sunday, September 21, 2008

And nobody will listen to them...

Economists against bailout. Oh, you want to know my opinion? I can't get past Henry Paulson telling me this morning that I had to look not at equities markets -- where everything is transparent and mostly known -- but rather at all those thoroughly opaque, non-transparent debt markets. Of course the problem is there's nothing to see there.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 2:31 PM

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Two Democrats...

Charlie Rangel is a rich tax cheat; -- FDR was disabled. "But seriously Rep. Rangel, would you agree we can attribute President Roosevelt's uncanny popularity to voters' kindness regarding his disabilities?"

Link posted by Steve Antler : 2:41 PM

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Better late than never...

Finally some evidence McCain is listening to somebody who knows something about markets and economics. His statement regarding naked short selling betrays economic knowledge reaching beyond grade-school level critiques of Wall Street traders' "unbridled corruption and greed" (or was it "greed and corruption"?). UPDATE: I hate to agree with anything Joe Klein writes, but this time I'm biting the bullet and nodding my head "yes." UPDATE II: This is what McCain should be saying.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:10 PM

For those who yearn...

If you're nostalgically looking for all that warmth and comfort of World War II's earliest stages, you'll be interested in this article, for which the incomparable Dasha sends the following translation: Caretaker governments for the Czechs and Hungarians? "A spectre is haunting Europe - the specter of the caretaker government," writes the liberal daily SME commenting on development in Hungary and the Czech Republic. In Budapest the Gyurcsany government is on the verge of collapse while in Prague Prime Minister Topolanek is losing more and more of his party's own MPs with each day that passes. "For those who have had enough of all the patchwork politics the idea of a caretaker government doesn't sound too bad at all. At last people who understand something of governance and are not just preoccupied with their own interests would be in charge. But this idea is deceptive. Unless we get rid of the entire system of parliamentary democracy it would still be the political parties who have the final say on the programs and measures of a caretaker government - with the simple difference that they wouldn't have to assume direct responsibility." (18/09/2008) Ironic this would appear on the same day Harry Reid announces he and all the Democrats are going to leave town because he doesn't know what to do.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 12:10 PM

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Ironic -- it's listed as an "opinion column"...

Ron Radosh gets closure: ...after Sobell's confession of guilt, all other conspiracy theories about the Rosenberg case should come to an end. A pillar of the left-wing culture of grievance has been finally shattered. The Rosenbergs were actual and dangerous Soviet spies. It is time the ranks of the left acknowledge that the United States had (and has) real enemies and that finding and prosecuting them is not evidence of repression.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 11:54 AM

We're not in public relations, but...

Regarding the new ad: (1) The lighting is a disaster. (2) To the many who don't pay much attention might not the words "reform our tax system to give a $1,000 tax break to the middle class" sound like a simple (and potentially insulting) bribe offer? (3) The ad runs in one long take, meaning they must have chosen the best of 10-15 alternative readings. This one suffers from a nearly subliminal Palin-like "Bush Doctrine" frozen moment when he says "crack down on--[slight hesitation]--lobbyists once and for all." He sounds unsure of himself at this moment. Does this indicate the alternate 14 takes -- each one must have been worse, after all -- were disasters? What are the implications for the upcoming debates?

Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:06 AM

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Another bubble bursts...

Things get interesting; another market based on unrealistic projections of rising price goes bust. And there is yet one more that may be next.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 1:40 PM

You know you need more regulation when...

You know you need more economic regulation when 1. an economic catastrophe clearly creates many losers and only a few winners (think the dust bowl, Grapes of Wrath, etc.); 2. everybody was surprised; nobody saw it coming (as in the great crash of 1987); 3. there are no current regulations or institutions in place, or current regulations/regulatory agencies are inactive. Am I missing something? Where's the case for more regulation? (a) For every current seller of a home there exists one or more potential buyers. The number of losers will eventually equal the number of winners. (b) Don't tell me anyone was surprised. The biggest "argument" for more regulation currently seems to be that everyone was warned! (c) In case you don't already know, U.S. financial markets are currently and actively regulated even more than Big Oil or Big Pharmaceuticals. Perhaps all this is why the most activist proponent of additional regulation has a proposal that is, shall we say, somewhat lame at best. You might ask about the two candidates' and many bureaucrats' insistence we need "streamlining" or "updating" of various agencies overseeing financial markets? Yes, this all sounds nice, but these proposals are easily predicted by Parkinson's Law. Face it -- you know you don't need more regulation when those calling for for it get bigger budgets, larger offices, and more staff. UPDATE: So how bad is the credit crunch? Are thousands of small businesses folding as their loans are being called? Google the news for the terms "small business" and "loans called" and the best you'll find is articles like this, telling us small businesses are turning down federal Small Business Administration loans in favor of less expensive ones provided by the private sector! UPDATE II: And isn't it ironic that at least one of the people associated with the current situation is closely associated with over-regulation of national security but under-regulation of financial markets? UPDATE III: And waiting in the wings are a host of proposals that would politicize financial regulation so badly we might as well give up on U.S. financial markets entirely.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:46 AM

Monday, September 15, 2008

Great minds and all that...

I am glad and relieved to report Prof. Case inteprets his index similarly to EconoPundit: the housing crisis, according to the United States' leading expert on the subject (him, not me), is reaching the end of the downward part of its cycle.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:03 PM

Threw my originals away in 1968...Dam!

Here's the new Kennedy button: If you get one, hold on to it!

Link posted by Steve Antler : 2:33 PM

RTGD...

It needs an acronym, so I've supplied one in the headline: "Return to Great Depression." Some retired regulators as well as the entirety of the angry left wing blogosphere (including those who insist we're actually in a recession but refuse to admit it) now takes Lehman's bankruptcy as a fully discounted, current RTGD. They warned us. We didn't listen. Heck, now we're really in for it! And Paul Krugman? Actually, he's not sure about RTGD -- proclaiming the actual truth of the doctrine would be, well, too risky it seems. Remember what Milton Friedman (of blessed memory) would say today: all the factories, houses, tools, workers, and final goods/services are still here! Nothing has vanished. Only a few numbers on a few pieces of paper (or their representation in computers) have changed. UPDATE: My first impression (no numbers to back it up -- nobody else has them either) is that the new flexible global economy, modern computerized inventory management ("just in time" rather than "just in case"), and FED reluctance to get too involved may make the difference between panic and small-recession-onset-business-as-usual. UPDATE II: You can't help but notice a similarity between RTGD and certain other modern anxieties. I remember an old story: a "progressive" mother, after raising her daughter on first name terms (the girl said "Jane" rather than "Mommy") discovered the girl regularly talked about all the other girls' "Janes" when referring to their mothers. (If mommy doesn't exist, in other words, we'll invent her anyway.) So: are RTGD, fears of the supercollider, or anxiety about global warming simply modern expressions of apocalyptic thought? If we discard religion, do we wind up reinventing it anyway? UPDATE III: The real problem, it would appear, is that Don Luskin just doesn't care enough to feel the pain of all those exposed to "unregulated predatory capitalism". UPDATE IV: And there's nothing new with RDGD. It is a story that's been told since the 1960s. Even then it was old (just google theories of "secular stagnation" connected with the end of WW II.)

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:26 AM

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Calamity Jamie...

She seems to have caused not one but two of the worst disasters of the past century. And please -- don't allow her to serve on the Fannie/Freddy Collapse Investigation Commission!

Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:17 PM

Poems are made by fools like me...

but nobody can make a pencil.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 10:13 PM

"But I must have said this before, since I say it now..."

For those with a broadband connection, here's a quick video review of the LTCM solution to the current Lehman crisis.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 3:40 PM

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Price spikes...

Be sure to call state or local government to report price gouging. Later, make sure you report there's no gas available so state or local government can force stations to pump all that gasoline they don't have and can't get.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 9:53 AM

Friday, September 12, 2008

Weimar Rewisited?

In a popular post Ron Rosenbaum channels FDR and directs righteous anger at the "hedge fund creeps": Obama should run against them... I think there is a vast untapped resentment out there against the sharpies who have ended up bankrupting and selling out our economy. It's time to hold them responsible, and in a democracy a presidential campaign is the time and the way to do it. So Obama ought to channel Hitler and run agains the Jewish Bankers? This is bad advice from the ethical standpoint. I also doubt it would work. The financial meltdown (if that's what it really is) has had a "catastrophic" impact only on the little economy living in critics' minds. Day-to-day economic life is a bit slow right now, but for the most part and for most people it remains business as usual! No dust bowl. No stream of Oakies and Arkies headed to California. No runaway inflation. Just a boring 6% (rather than 3%) mortgage default rate. Boring. Hell, I wish business were better, but it seems to be going on slowly but still surely. UPDATE: I couldn't prove it, but I strongly suspect the new Gallup polling numbers reflect positive public response to Republicans' Palin-inspired rediscovery of Reaganian optimism: So if I'm correct, Rosenbaum's advice amounts to telling the guy in the hole to just keep digging.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:16 AM

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Table Pads as Rite of Passage...

Neil Steinberg -- whose work we've always liked and have linked to in the past -- has shown the remarkably good taste to comment wisely not only on Sarah Palin's lastest critics, but also on our very own Superior Table Pad Company! UPDATE: Uh, just by the way, you can click here for more info on Superior Table Pad Company.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 4:42 PM

Friday, September 05, 2008

Chrome...

Google's new browser...the answer to a question that has not been asked?

Link posted by Steve Antler : 1:28 PM

Need a blackboard and an hour to explain in full...

As I read this I get the impression Sarah Palin understand the very important differences between costs, revenues, profits, and rents generated by nonrenewable natural resource industries. In short: the state's laws are structured to collect the rent (which, whatever you choose to call it, rightly belongs to the voters, who own the resource) and not steal the profit (which, whatever you choose to call it, rightly belongs to the shareholders).

Link posted by Steve Antler : 8:36 AM

Chicago's housing bottom revealed?

I found this for a class and thought EconoPunditistas might be interested. Standard and Poors has a home price index by city, and in looking over Chicago I discovered the past three months (red arrow) have been fairly stable. Good news for Chicago, perhaps, and maybe some sort of canary in the coal mine for the rest of the nation. UPDATE: As usual, great minds seem to travel in the same rut! Karl "Chip" Case thinks we're at or near a bottom in, perhaps, half the country as a whole! Here's an up to date picture of the Chicago Case/Schiller index; I think it makes the case even more clearly than the Standard & Poor index: UPDATE II: Oops! The Standard & Poor Index is the Case/Schiller Index. Sorry. UPDATE III: Circumstantial evidence the bottom is being reached.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 7:46 AM

Thursday, September 04, 2008

The problem with those "community organizers"...

A few MSM commentators last night took extreme offense at Republican mocking of Obama's "community organizer" experience. There will be a strong backlash, they said. Folks like Obama are highly valued by all those communities they "organize." Yet there's a problem with all this, and one simply can't recognize the problem unless one owns and/or works in a small community-based business like mine. To owners of small community-based businesses, and to the workers who show up at these businesses every day, "community organizers" are more often than not nothing more than shakedown artists. Sometimes they can be friendly and professional. Just as often, however, they present themselves as something between mildly hostile to downright threatening. Do these visitors really represent the "community?" To small business owners and their workers the answer is "no." It is we -- paricipants in business -- who show up and work in the community day in and day out. We pay our bills, pay our taxes, meet the payroll, and do all this work in this very community. By showing up and doing our daily jobs, we are the true community organizers. UPDATE: During the coming days let's just see how many angry small business owners and workers throughout the country rise up in righteous indignation at Republican insults to their valued, cherished "community organizers." Listen carefully and to hear just how important are "community organizers" to real people in their everyday lives. UPDATE II: Regarding some of the latest discussions re. community organizers -- let me be perfectly clear my personal experience with such folks includes representatives of virtually ALL the major racial and ethnic groups making up the great city of Chicago. My experience as a small business owner/operator has absolutely NOT -- not in any way, shape, or form -- directed me toward the the conclusion the term "community organizer" means "African-American individual." Anyone purveying this new trope likely has no real world experience with day to day urban life.

Link posted by Steve Antler : 5:57 AM

 
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